Supply models for stability of supply-demand in the Korean pork market

Chunghyeon  Kim1   Hyungwoo  Lee1   Tongjoo  Suh2,*   

1Livestock Outlook Team, Center for Agricultural Outlook, Korea Rural Economic Institute, Cheongju 28165, Korea
2Modeling Research Team, Center for Agricultural Outlook, Korea Rural Economic Institute, Naju 58321, Korea


As the supply and demand of pork has become a significant concern in Korea, controlling it has become a critical challenge for the industry. However, compared to the demand for pork, which has relatively stable consumption, it is not easy to maintain a stable supply. As the preparation of measures for a supply-demand crisis response and supply control in the pig industry has emerged as an important task, it has become necessary to establish a stable supply model and create an appropriate manual. In this study, a pork supply prediction model is constructed using reported data from the pig traceability system. Based on the derived results, a method for determining the supply-demand crisis stage using a statistical approach was proposed. From the results of the analysis, working days, African swine fever, heat wave, and Covid-19 were shown to affect the number of pigs graded in the market. A test of the performance of the model showed that both in-sample error rate and out-sample error rate were between 0.3 - 7.6%, indicating a high level of predictive power. Applying the forecast, the distribution of the confidence interval of the predicted value was established, and the supply crisis stage was identified, evaluating supply-demand conditions.

Figures & Tables

Fig. 1. How to determine the supply crisis stage.